Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan
Policy Scenarios and Implications
By (author) George G. Eberling
Not available to order
Publication date:
02 July 2014Length of book:
212 pagesPublisher
Lexington BooksISBN-13: 9780739191828
Future Oil Demands of China, India, and Japan examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-Indian and Sino-Japanese relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency, and whether competition or cooperation for scarce energy resources will result. The author lists and describes three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus, and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis and the PRINCE Method to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods. Further, this book discusses and evaluates their strategic implications for India and Japan and estimates the most likely oil energy future.
This book argues that China’s rising dependence on imported oil, along with its adroit use of soft power, economic prowess, strategic engagement of the world as an alternative model of political and economic development, military modernization, and rapid economic growth can only mean that it will alter the global status quo and become the dominant actor in world affairs in the near future. India and Japan will be less influential economically because China is skillfully harnessing and strategically exercising the elements of national power (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to acquire scarce oil energy resources in the Near East, Western Hemisphere, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
This book argues that China’s rising dependence on imported oil, along with its adroit use of soft power, economic prowess, strategic engagement of the world as an alternative model of political and economic development, military modernization, and rapid economic growth can only mean that it will alter the global status quo and become the dominant actor in world affairs in the near future. India and Japan will be less influential economically because China is skillfully harnessing and strategically exercising the elements of national power (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to acquire scarce oil energy resources in the Near East, Western Hemisphere, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The strength of George Eberling’s book is the framework he uses to understand the geopolitical calculus of Chinese energy choices, using statistical analysis to construct policy scenarios for three possible Chinese oil futures, and then to draw the strategic implications for China’s relations with India and Japan for each of the scenarios. In the debate on whether China’s overseas oil investment policy is guided by the Beijing government’s strategic and mercantilist strategies or by powerful Chinese national oil companies responding to market mechanisms with commercial priorities, Dr. Eberling clearly chooses to focus on the government’s geopolitical calculus and competitive instincts. Nevertheless, Eberling suggests that energy cooperation with China is one future possibility. Policymakers may find useful his recommendations for multilateral Initiatives in energy cooperation, a topic not many energy analysts consider in-depth.