Unfolding Ambition in Senate Primary Elections

Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of Candidacy Decisions

By (author) Aaron S. King

Publication date:

30 May 2017

Length of book:

234 pages

Publisher

Lexington Books

ISBN-13: 9781498544252

Theories of ambition teach us that elected offices are valuable commodities to certain politicians, and under the right circumstances, the benefits of running for an office outweigh the associated risks. Yet, some ambitious politicians emerge as candidates while others do not. This book analyzes strategic candidacy decisions to explain how primary elections for the United States Senate unfold. With new, comprehensive data on pools of potential candidates, it examines the determinants of electoral and fundraising success, analyzes the importance of the timing of candidacy decisions and the strategic interactions of prospective officeholders, and investigates the impact of strategic retirements. Using both qualitative and quantitative tools, including event history techniques to capture the complex dynamics of these races, it concludes that the manner in which politicians interact with one another and the unique context within each campaign leads to individuals emerging from the pool of potential candidates in systematic ways. In the end, the strategic behavior of ambitious politicians has important implications for the slate of candidates available to the electorate and ultimately, the quality of representation between constituents and their legislators.

List of Tables
List of Figures
Chapter 1: Ambition from a New Perspective
Chapter 2: The Strategic Timing of Candidacy Decisions
Chapter 3: A Dynamic Data Collection Strategy
Chapter 4: Candidate Quality and Success in Primary Elections
Chapter 5: An Empirical Assessment of the Timing of Candidacy Decisions
Chapter 6: Strategic Interactions of Potential Candidates
Chapter 7: Strategic Retirements and the Decision Timeline
Chapter 8: Choice and Competition in Elections: What Do Americans Want?
Chapter 9: Conclusion
Technical Appendix
About the Author

The focus on ambition is fitting given the ambitious goals of the study. King tackles the intuitively appealing notion that candidate emergence is contingent on ever-changing conditions prior to filing deadlines. Though this characterization has been recognized by others and is undoubtedly correct, moving beyond case studies presents a number of data collection and modeling challenges that have limited previous investigations. King provides a detailed, illuminating account of the data collection strategy, demonstrating how pools of potential US Senate candidates were identified, offering an alternative to existing methods of determining ambition. These data are employed to assess both primary outcomes and the electoral process with an eye toward explaining how alternatives are presented to the public, which is fundamental to the representation received by constituents. The true innovation comes in the exploration of the timing of entry decisions and the interactions among members of the pool of potential candidates. The technical discussion of the models and results will limit the audience for the book, but this investigation marks the beginning of a new chapter in the literature on political ambition and its consequences for representation. Summing Up: Highly recommended.