Publication date:
10 November 2017Length of book:
226 pagesPublisher
Rowman & Littlefield PublishersISBN-13: 9780810895577
Japan, which is among the most earthquake-prone regions in the world, has a long history of responding to seismic disasters. However, despite advances in earthquake-related safety technologies, the destructiveness of the magnitude 9 class earthquake and tsunami that struck the country on 3/11 raised profound questions about how societies can deal effectively with seismic hazards. This important book places the devastating earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown disaster in historical perspective, examining conceptions of earthquakes since the seventeenth century, the diverse ways actual earthquakes and their aftermath played out, and their enduring social and scientific significance. By looking backward, Gregory Smits identifies future pitfalls to avoid and assesses the allocation of resources for dealing with future earthquake and tsunami disasters. He criticizes Japan’s postwar quest for earthquake prediction and the concept of “characteristic” earthquakes. Smits argues that earthquakes are so chaotic as to be unpredictable, not only geologically but also in their social and cultural effects. Therefore, he contends, the best hope for future disaster mitigation is antiseismic engineering and flexible disaster-relief capabilities. As the first sustained historical analysis of destructive earthquakes and tsunamis, this book is an essential resource for anyone interested in Japan, natural disasters, seismology, and environmental history.
Smits offers a very well-written and insightful study of the eternal quest to create and validate the shaky science of earthquake prediction. Basing his book on an analysis of major earthquakes in Japan over the last 200 years, including the earthquake and tsunami of 3/11, the author concludes that it is impossible to predict them (neither their timing nor location). He bases this conclusion on an easily understandable description of the geology of earthquakes. Unfortunately, the resources of government and the scientific community, particularly in Japan, are fixated on this misguided task; in the postwar era, this effort has shifted from ‘predicting’ to ‘forecasting.’ Smits argues that great benefits can accrue by using earthquakes and their results as precedents and guideposts to instead focus resources on mitigating their social and economic impact. For example, lessons from earlier earthquakes in the Tōhoku region of Japan might very well have reduced the impact of the disastrous 3/11 events. This valuable, persuasive, and very readable study will appeal to all interested in the history of modern Japan, the history of earthquakes in Japan, and the science of seismology. Summing Up: Essential. All levels.